Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 33.701755 36.331653 39.189245 42.547187 46.414435 50.765288 56.083668
2025-06-01 29.472856 32.902515 36.862849 41.848909 48.071962 55.747783 66.215581
2025-06-08 26.654557 30.386047 34.858384 40.742906 48.495082 58.704859 73.846940
2025-06-15 25.597082 29.753272 34.912608 41.999127 51.860579 65.787984 88.514499
2025-06-22 24.214436 28.537693 34.041866 41.846611 53.173938 70.094853 100.062420
2025-06-29 22.866780 27.234798 32.905316 41.149861 53.529234 72.913010 109.829801
2025-07-06 21.547781 25.866613 31.556087 39.988299 52.990629 74.137409 116.966161
2025-07-13 21.176913 25.719798 31.837070 41.171755 56.175102 82.119149 140.506768
2025-07-20 20.723302 25.420632 31.866377 41.957699 58.796367 89.645929 166.929688
2025-07-27 20.230587 25.030447 31.726001 42.449287 60.962336 96.784197 196.910436
2025-08-03 19.580782 24.380689 31.158573 42.201304 61.772659 101.328762 222.776731
2025-08-10 18.854746 23.586055 30.327401 41.451549 61.562392 103.608944 243.116681
2025-08-17 18.137443 22.790177 29.477236 40.649478 61.246398 105.807281 266.443740
2025-08-24 17.507618 22.095830 28.746996 39.997898 61.155452 108.584646 295.981908
2025-08-31 16.833894 21.309697 27.836300 38.971703 60.205261 109.031092 315.842825
2025-09-07 16.724649 21.343232 28.185953 40.137238 63.823728 122.420727 432.210242
2025-09-14 16.327000 20.930703 27.812996 39.995824 64.693595 128.580650 522.958107
2025-09-21 15.845445 20.374276 27.185005 39.349471 64.389584 131.197707 595.539054
2025-09-28 15.299760 19.703766 26.347652 38.270725 63.015861 130.160728 630.300523
2025-10-05 15.240376 19.764276 26.684530 39.369789 66.691914 146.925843 1020.948677
2025-10-12 15.106248 19.703920 26.819233 40.098828 69.638406 162.899650 1793.664483
2025-10-19 14.925262 19.563473 26.812946 40.554478 72.002240 178.166831 3746.670573
2025-10-26 14.627203 19.230583 26.469678 40.324656 72.606768 186.496557 7845.683150